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A number of illegal sellers are capitalizing on vaccine skepticism in Europe and North America by selling fake Covid-19 vaccination and testing certificates for Bitcoin. An internal analysis by Elliptic, which identified at least $100,000 in profits for these sellers, suggests that this lucrative business could be earning individual criminals around $15,000 a month.
As booster campaigns intensify over fears of the Omicron variant, new restrictions across Europe and North America have made it difficult for unvaccinated individuals to travel or attend closed spaces.
This has led to a large number of illegal online sellers and marketplaces selling fake Covid-19 vaccination documents and test results to those who refuse the jab, advertising their services on social media and instant messaging app Telegram.
Cooperation with corrupt vaccination officials
Ranging from falsified negative test results to authentic vaccine passes, fake Covid documents can cost anywhere from $50 to $800 in bitcoins, depending on their level of sophistication. At the higher end, there are certificates of genuine vaccines entered into national health system databases by corrupt health officials, working alongside illegal vendors to generate functional QR codes for customers.
Criminals use vaccine conspiracies and their connections to corrupt health officials to market their products
Investigative journalists who were working undercover to purchase and test these products have confirmed they work to prove vaccination status when scanned, often only 24-48 hours after purchase. Several providers advertise their services for multiple countries simultaneously, indicating that they have contacts within multiple health systems.
“Calculate [of complicit health officials] who have access also do the right vaccinations. When entered correctly, there is no way to tell the difference between real and fake records. A large number of vaccinations are carried out daily. Any false records will pass without a problem.” one seller operating out of Australia claimed on Telegram, while assuring potential buyers of the legal risk.
A screenshot claiming to show access to Australia’s national vaccination database
Elliptic has identified over 100 Telegram vendors offering fake virus vaccination certificates in the UK, US, Canada, Australia and the EU, the vast majority of which only deal in cryptocurrencies. Some, especially those that advertise lower prices, are possible scams.
Although many Telegram vendor groups have over 100,000 members, the typical number of customers appears to be significantly lower. An analysis of the two vendors showed that both served a similar number of customers (around 30-35) per month and attracted around 1,000 regular views of their Telegram posts. However, their transaction data shows that this still amounts to a monthly income of around $15,000 in Bitcoin.
An analysis of vendor blockchain wallet activity shows that revenues are usually cashed out in batches by major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Counterfeit Covid documents have also become more available on darknet markets, although they are not as popular as individual vendors operating through Telegram. Dark0de, which has recently become the darknet’s most popular marketplace, has five listings for counterfeit vaccine cards. The number of purchases for each, however, is in the single digits (and for some even zero).
An ad on the Dark0de darknet marketplace is offering EU Covid passes for sale
How vaccine misinformation is fueling the illegal trade in Covid passes
The booming Covid fake pass market is the culmination of a broader vaccine misinformation trend that has accelerated throughout 2021. Numerous movements, conspiracy theorists, ‘alternative medicine’ advocates, political candidates and religious figures have contributed false claims about Covid vaccines online.
Many individuals have used social media, streaming platforms or their own dedicated websites to spread misinformation and solicit donations. The most prevalent claims, many of which are repeated by Telegram Covid pass sellers, include a conspiracy about malicious ingredients and unconfirmed reports of wildly exaggerated side effects.
Despite being deplatformed on most major social media platforms, vaccine misinformation continues to spread widely online
Elliptic’s internal analysis shows that entities associated with anti-vaccine disinformation have earned just under $740,000 in cryptocurrency donations. Many of these entities are not exclusively anti-vaccine and also publish more general conspiracy and right-wing extremist content (see here for a more detailed analysis of these entities).
Although it has been repeatedly discredited by leading health experts and scientists, the significant influx of crypto donations to these entities shows that vaccine conspiracies continue to appeal to significant segments of the population, making them willing to pay as much as $800 for a vaccine pass to avoid the sting.
How can Elliptic help?
Elliptic’s research team routinely monitors the activities of illegal vendors on the dark web and messaging apps like Telegram. Since the vast majority of Telegram sellers deal in Bitcoin, blockchain analysis and screening is one of the most effective ways to identify their illegal transactions and prevent them from cashing out.
Elliptic clients can use ours solutions for viewing transactions and wallets to review and analyze the blockchain activities of illegal sellers of Covid passes and disseminators of vaccine misinformation. Virtual asset service providers can also be alerted when a high-risk entity tries to use their service to cash in on their illicit proceeds.
